Cell Expectancy Heatmap — 360 Setups Across 15 Assets × 24 NY Hours

• Each row = an asset. Each column = a NY hour (0-23). Each cell = the historical expectancy of trading that asset at that hour using our FVG + 5th-candle close rule.
• Bright green = +0.15R or better per trade. Red = net loser. Grey = breakeven or too few samples.
• The 12 cells in our live portfolio are circled — those are what fires on @tgsignals_preview and @tgsignals_wins.
• Hover any cell to see the underlying numbers: sample count, win rate, expectancy, and live status.

How was this data generated?

We ran the Silver Bullet rule (FVG + 5th-candle close, Tue-Thu, Apr-Nov) on 1 year of tick data across 15 assets x 24 NY hours = 360 unique (asset, hour) cells. Each cell logged ~100 trades. The rule is frozen — no per-cell tuning, no parameter optimization — so the expectancy numbers reflect how the pattern actually behaves on each asset-hour combination, not a curve-fit.

Why are some cells negative?

Because the pattern does not work everywhere. That is the whole point. Most ICT/SMC content implies that order-block-style patterns are universal. The data shows they are heavily concentrated: ~40 of 360 cells print positive expectancy after costs. The negative cells are not a bug — they are evidence that "trade FVG on every asset at every hour" is a losing strategy. Filter by cell or do not trade the pattern at all.

Can I trade the green cells manually?

Yes, but timing is critical. The Silver Bullet rule requires the 5th candle after the FVG to close in your direction, in a specific 15-minute window per cell. Miss the window and the edge evaporates. The expectancy numbers above assume you take every signal — manual execution typically loses 30-50% of the edge to missed entries, scaled-down sizing, and confirmation bias. Automation strongly recommended; bot account fires every signal at the listed price.

Will these cells stay positive?

Backtest is past performance. Regimes shift — a cell that printed +0.10R last year can flatten or invert. We monitor cell health weekly via a DM to operators and rotate the live portfolio when a cell drops below a 50-trade trailing expectancy threshold. The 12 currently-live cells are the ones that have stayed above their threshold for 6+ consecutive weeks; the historical sweep is a starting point, not a permanent buy list.

What does the colour scale mean?

Red = expectancy below -0.05R per trade (net loser after costs). Grey = expectancy between -0.05R and +0.05R (breakeven / noise / too few samples). Light green = +0.05 to +0.10R (real but marginal edge, not enough to justify live capital after slippage). Medium green = +0.10 to +0.15R (tradeable). Bright green = above +0.15R (top-decile cell, primary candidate for the live portfolio). The 12 cells with a cyan ring are the ones currently auto-trading.