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Smart Money Concepts (SMC) - The 7 Setups That Actually Have Edge
The complete reference for institutional-style trading patterns, with the one thing nobody else publishes: forward-tested expectancy per setup, per asset, per NY hour.
Smart Money Concepts is the modern label for institutional-style trading patterns: order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity sweeps, killzones, displacement. Most SMC content describes the patterns. We publish the 1-year forward-tested expectancy per setup x asset x NY hour. Our 12 live cells are public. Free.
The 7 SMC setups
Each setup, what it is in one line, what our 12-month data says, and where to drill in.
1. Order Block
The last opposing candle before a strong displacement move. Price often returns to it before continuing.
Our data: NY-AM order blocks on US500/NAS100 = top-quartile expectancy across all 360 cells tested.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG)
A 3-candle imbalance where wicks do not overlap. Treated as unfilled liquidity that price returns to fill.
Our data: Standalone FVGs are net-flat. FVG + killzone confluence prints positive on EUR/USD and gold during London open.
Tool coming soon.
3. Breaker Block (BPR)
An order block that failed and flipped polarity. Acts as resistance where it was support and vice-versa.
Our data: Works on US30/NAS100 during NY PM continuation. Failed setups noisy on FX.
Tool coming soon.
4. Mitigation Block
The low/high of the move that took out a previous swing, treated as a re-entry zone for unfilled institutional orders.
Our data: Insufficient sample size after 12 months. Excluded from live basket pending more bars.
Tool coming soon.
5. Liquidity Sweep
Price spikes through an obvious swing high/low (taking stops) and then reverses. The signature pre-condition for SMC entries.
Our data: CBDR overnight sweeps on JPY-crosses = highest expectancy outside the US session.
Tool coming soon.
6. Killzone Confluence
Any of the above patterns firing inside a known institutional flow window (London open, NY AM, NY PM, Asia mid-session).
Our data: Killzone confluence ~3x the expectancy of standalone pattern entries.
7. Wyckoff Schematic
Accumulation/distribution phase diagrams (springs, upthrusts, signs of strength). Older than SMC; conceptually compatible.
Our data: Used as higher-timeframe bias filter, not as entry trigger. Not separately tested at the cell level.
Tool coming soon.
The full 360-cell expectancy data
Want the win rate, R-multiple, and trade count for every asset x session-hour combo we tested? Coming next: an interactive heatmap across all 13 live markets x 5 session windows x ~6 setups.
For now, the Order Block scanner surfaces our top-10 ranked cells in real time, with the live auto-trade record per cell.
Why backtest data > pattern definitions
Every YouTube ICT guru explains Order Blocks. Almost nobody publishes win rate x asset x session. The difference between profitable SMC and theatre is the data behind the entry.
A setup with a 62% hit rate on NAS100 at 07:30 NY can have a 41% hit rate on the same NAS100 at 14:30 NY. Same chart, same pattern, same stop, opposite outcome. If a course teaches the pattern without the hour-of-day data, you are paying for half a system.
Related tools and guides
- ICT Order Block scanner - top-10 ranked cells, live auto-trade record per cell.
- ICT Killzones clock - coming soon (live NY/London/Asia countdown).
- Silver Bullet seasonality - coming soon (5-yr month-by-month edge map).
- Wyckoff vs ICT bridge - coming soon (the patterns mapped 1:1).
- FTMO indices margin calculator - critical for SMC traders running prop-firm accounts on US30/NAS100.
- ICT killzone times - canonical NY/London/Asia session windows in NY local + UTC.
FAQ
Is SMC the same as ICT?
Effectively yes for the patterns - Smart Money Concepts is the broader umbrella term that crystallized after ICT (Inner Circle Trader) popularized order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity sweeps and killzones in the 2010s. SMC strips the personality and the proprietary terminology and keeps the institutional-style patterns. Most modern SMC courses recycle ICT material with renamed setups.
Which SMC setup has the highest edge?
From our 12-month forward-tracked data across 13 live markets: a confluence trade (order block sitting inside a killzone after a liquidity sweep) prints roughly 3x the expectancy of any single-pattern entry. Standalone, NY-AM order blocks on US500 and NAS100 lead, followed by London-open FVG fills on EUR/USD and gold. Standalone fair value gaps without killzone confluence are net-negative in our data.
Do I need to learn all 7 setups?
No. We trade live with 3 of the 7 (order blocks, FVG, killzone confluence) and ignore the rest because they did not produce repeatable expectancy in our forward test. The 7 are documented here for completeness - your job is to find the 1-2 that match your timezone and patience profile, then forward-test them yourself before risking capital.
How is this different from price action trading?
Classical price action (support/resistance, trendlines, candlestick patterns) treats the chart as a mood board. SMC tries to reverse-engineer what large counterparties did - which level got swept, which gap got filled, which session window saw displacement. SMC is more falsifiable: a level either held or did not, a killzone either fired or did not. That falsifiability is why we could backtest it.
Want to see SMC entries fire in real time, on real broker accounts, with every win and loss public? The 12 live cells post to free Telegram channels:
See the live signals feed →