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Gap fill statistics: do weekend gaps actually fill?
"Gaps always fill" is one of trading's favourite proverbs. We measured it: every weekend gap (Monday open vs Friday close) across 30+ markets on 5 years of real data - how often price actually came back to the Friday close the same day, and within the week, split by gap size and direction.
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| Market | Gaps (5y) | Median size | Filled same day | Filled in week | Small gaps | Large gaps |
|---|
How to read it: small gaps fill far more often than large ones - the proverb is mostly a small-gap phenomenon. A large weekend gap is more often the start of a move than an error to be corrected. "Filled" = price traded back to Friday's close. Educational, not investment advice.
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